9/10/15 Another Recession?


Is there another recession ahead?

The August Jobs Report had some good news.  The economy added 173,000 jobs. And unemployment dropped to 5.1%.

But there’s more to the story.  And it ain’t good.

The potential work-force population is 251 million.  But only 157 million are officially in the labor force. That labor force is divided into two categories “employed” and “unemployed.” 

People who are unemployed and haven’t looked for work in a month are dropped from the labor force.   This number has hit a record-high 94 million.

Millions of discouraged workers are no longer counted as “unemployed.”  Even though they don’t have a job.  In August, their ranks swelled by more than a quarter of a million. 

This explains why the unemployment rate drops even when fewer people are working.  It’s government “trickeration” at work.

The labor force participation rate, which is the percentage of eligible workers who are actually working is 62.6%. The lowest rate since Jimmy Carter.   Employment numbers are getting worse.

There’s another troubling indicator a recession may be ahead. 

US factory orders fell for the ninth straight month.  They’ve fallen a dramatic 15% in the past year.  These numbers look similar to our last two recessions.

Meanwhile, Washington politicians — Republicans and Democrats — refuse to get government spending under control.  This will only make matters worse if we have another recession.

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